Family Business Office is an experienced, independent, fee-based source of unbiased investment advice and solutions.
We structure and manage portfolios to meet long-term financial objectives, agreed upon early in each client relationship and documented as a baseline for investing decisions.
We apply investment allocation models to client objectives and tolerance for volatility, and customize them to suit individual client circumstances.
Major trends hold the key to investing success. The following current cyclical (aka “secular”) patterns of varied length will drive returns going forward.
- In 2000, U.S. stocks entered a secular bear market. Government stimulus programs interrupted this cycle in 2008 and corporate buybacks kept the rise going. A major correction—on the order of 50%—is due. But we do not anticipate that happening until 2018 at the earliest, as the U.S. equity market should continue to benefit from safe-haven money fleeing China, Europe and Japan.
- U.S. government bond values have been supported for ten years by foreign safe-haven investors. We anticipate the current sovereign debt “bubble” growing even larger, before popping in 2017-2018.
- Since 2000 we have been in a precious metals secular bull market. Following 12-consecutive years of positive returns, gold and silver entered a correction in 2011 which is coming to a close as these assets resume historical roles as hedges against irresponsible government.
- The secular bull market in commodities has been fragmented. Petroleum-based energy is being replaced by increasingly-competitive alternative energy sources. Real estate and timber will be suppressed by economic circumstances. Water and agriculture are in recognized short supply and should continue rising.
- Since 2002 we have been in a secular bear market for the U.S. dollar—hence a bull market for alternative currencies. This trend was also interrupted in 2011 but is set to resume when the U.S. government bond bubble pops.
- In late 2015 we entered a 4-year cycle against government. As resulting turbulence disrupts global economies, safe-haven money is moving as indicated above. More than one informed source believes that economic circumstances will be historic—perhaps worse than the U.S. Great Depression.
- These major trends—as well as the precarious financial condition of U.S. and global economies—are reflected in our allocation recommendations, skewing them defensively.
Buy-and-hold investment approaches have been widely discredited and are generally ineffective in coping with today’s historic global financial transformation. We digest a wide range of investment data and projections regarding current or future circumstances, and employ trading techniques to implement our conclusions.
We encourage clients to hold assets in physical form, while supporting brokered accounts using ETFs, mutual funds and individual stocks.
Our current detailed quarterly market outlook is available upon request.
Since all investment strategies contain various elements of risk, we cannot and do not guarantee that the strategies outlined above will perform as intended. Clients and prospective clients are advised to carefully consider risk factors—including currency risk, political risk, systemic risk and company-specific risk—prior to investing.
Family Business Office is a Texas-Registered Investment Advisor. We work on a fee basis only.
To request more information, please complete our online form or call us at 817-684-8600.